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PROBLEM

From historical data, 18%18 \% of people work out daily (p=0.18)(p=0.18). In a sample of 15 (n=15)(n=15) people, use the binomial formula or your TI-8314 to determine the probability that exactly 4 (of the fifteen) work out daily.
For a standard normal distribution:
a) What is the probability that zz is less than 0.47 ?
b) What is the probability that zz is greater than -1.83 ?
\qquad
c) What is the probability that zz is between -1.29 and 0.64 ? \qquad
d) What is the probability that zz is between -1.96 and 1.96 ? \qquad

STEP 1

What is this asking?
Out of 15 people, what's the chance that exactly 4 of them work out daily, if we know 18% of people generally do?
Also, we need to find some probabilities using a z-table or calculator.
Watch out!
Don't mix up the binomial formula parts, and make sure to use the correct z-scores for the normal distribution questions!

STEP 2

1. Binomial Probability
2. Z-score Less Than
3. Z-score Greater Than
4. Z-score Between Two Values (1)
5. Z-score Between Two Values (2)

STEP 3

The binomial probability formula tells us the chance of getting exactly kk successes in nn trials:
P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)(nk)P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} \cdot p^k \cdot (1-p)^{(n-k)} Where pp is the probability of success on a single trial.

STEP 4

We have n=15n = \textbf{15} people (trials), we want k=4k = \textbf{4} people to work out (successes), and the probability of someone working out daily is p=0.18p = \textbf{0.18}.
Let's plug these into our formula!
P(X=4)=(154)(0.18)4(10.18)(154)P(X=4) = \binom{15}{4} \cdot (0.18)^4 \cdot (1-0.18)^{(15-4)}

STEP 5

The binomial coefficient (154)\binom{15}{4} represents the number of ways to choose 4 people out of 15.
It's calculated as:
(154)=15!4!(154)!=15!4!11!=151413124321=1365\binom{15}{4} = \frac{15!}{4! \cdot (15-4)!} = \frac{15!}{4! \cdot 11!} = \frac{15 \cdot 14 \cdot 13 \cdot 12}{4 \cdot 3 \cdot 2 \cdot 1} = \textbf{1365}

STEP 6

Now, let's plug everything back into our binomial formula:
P(X=4)=1365(0.18)4(0.82)1113650.001049760.11656090.167P(X=4) = 1365 \cdot (0.18)^4 \cdot (0.82)^{11} \approx 1365 \cdot 0.00104976 \cdot 0.1165609 \approx \textbf{0.167} So, there's about a 16.7% chance of exactly 4 out of 15 people working out daily.

STEP 7

We want to find P(z<0.47)P(z < 0.47).
Using a z-table or calculator, we find this probability to be approximately 0.6808\textbf{0.6808}.

STEP 8

We want P(z>1.83)P(z > -1.83).
This is the same as 1P(z<1.83)1 - P(z < -1.83).
Using a z-table or calculator, P(z<1.83)0.0336P(z < -1.83) \approx 0.0336, so P(z>1.83)10.0336=0.9664P(z > -1.83) \approx 1 - 0.0336 = \textbf{0.9664}.

STEP 9

We're looking for P(1.29<z<0.64)P(-1.29 < z < 0.64).
This is equal to P(z<0.64)P(z<1.29)P(z < 0.64) - P(z < -1.29).
Using a z-table or calculator, P(z<0.64)0.7389P(z < 0.64) \approx 0.7389 and P(z<1.29)0.0985P(z < -1.29) \approx 0.0985.
So, P(1.29<z<0.64)0.73890.0985=0.6404P(-1.29 < z < 0.64) \approx 0.7389 - 0.0985 = \textbf{0.6404}.

STEP 10

We want P(1.96<z<1.96)P(-1.96 < z < 1.96).
This is P(z<1.96)P(z<1.96)P(z < 1.96) - P(z < -1.96).
From a z-table or calculator, P(z<1.96)0.9750P(z < 1.96) \approx 0.9750 and P(z<1.96)0.0250P(z < -1.96) \approx 0.0250.
Therefore, P(1.96<z<1.96)0.97500.0250=0.95P(-1.96 < z < 1.96) \approx 0.9750 - 0.0250 = \textbf{0.95}.

SOLUTION

The probability of exactly 4 out of 15 people working out daily is approximately 0.167\textbf{0.167}.
For the standard normal distribution: a) P(z<0.47)0.6808P(z < 0.47) \approx \textbf{0.6808}, b) P(z>1.83)0.9664P(z > -1.83) \approx \textbf{0.9664}, c) P(1.29<z<0.64)0.6404P(-1.29 < z < 0.64) \approx \textbf{0.6404}, and d) P(1.96<z<1.96)0.95P(-1.96 < z < 1.96) \approx \textbf{0.95}.

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