PROBLEM
The accompanying tree diagram represents an experiment consisting of two trials.
Use the diagram to find the probabilities below.
(a) P(A)1.4 (b) P(E∣A)5 (c) P(A∩E)15 (d) P(E)
35
STEP 1
1. The tree diagram represents a probability experiment with two trials.
2. Probabilities for the first trial are given as P(A)=0.4, P(B)=0.3, and P(C)=0.2.
3. Conditional probabilities for the second trial are given for each branch.
STEP 2
1. Verify and calculate P(A).
2. Calculate P(E∣A).
3. Calculate P(A∩E).
4. Calculate P(E).
STEP 3
Verify the probability of event A.
Given: P(A)=0.4
Since the probability is directly provided in the tree diagram, no further calculation is needed.
STEP 4
Calculate the conditional probability P(E∣A).
From the tree diagram, the probability of E given A is:
P(E∣A)=0.5
STEP 5
Calculate the joint probability P(A∩E).
Using the formula for joint probability:
P(A∩E)=P(A)×P(E∣A) Substitute the known values:
P(A∩E)=0.4×0.5=0.2
SOLUTION
Calculate the probability of E, P(E).
Using the law of total probability:
P(E)=P(A∩E)+P(B∩E)+P(C∩E) Calculate each term:
P(B∩E)=P(B)×P(E∣B)=0.3×0.3=0.09 P(C∩E)=P(C)×P(E∣C)=0.2×0.4=0.08 Add the probabilities:
P(E)=0.2+0.09+0.08=0.37 The probabilities are:
(a) P(A)=0.4
(b) P(E∣A)=0.5
(c) P(A∩E)=0.2
(d) P(E)=0.37
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