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PROBLEM

The accompanying tree diagram represents an experiment consisting of two trials.
Use the diagram to find the probabilities below.
 (a) P(A)1.4\begin{array}{l} \text { (a) } P(A) \\ 1.4 \end{array}  (b) P(EA)5 (c) P(AE)15\begin{array}{l} \text { (b) } \quad P(E \mid A) \\ 5 \\ \text { (c) } \quad P(A \cap E) \\ 15 \end{array} (d) P(E)P(E)
3535

STEP 1

1. The tree diagram represents a probability experiment with two trials.
2. Probabilities for the first trial are given as P(A)=0.4 P(A) = 0.4 , P(B)=0.3 P(B) = 0.3 , and P(C)=0.2 P(C) = 0.2 .
3. Conditional probabilities for the second trial are given for each branch.

STEP 2

1. Verify and calculate P(A) P(A) .
2. Calculate P(EA) P(E \mid A) .
3. Calculate P(AE) P(A \cap E) .
4. Calculate P(E) P(E) .

STEP 3

Verify the probability of event A A .
Given: P(A)=0.4 P(A) = 0.4
Since the probability is directly provided in the tree diagram, no further calculation is needed.

STEP 4

Calculate the conditional probability P(EA) P(E \mid A) .
From the tree diagram, the probability of E E given A A is:
P(EA)=0.5 P(E \mid A) = 0.5

STEP 5

Calculate the joint probability P(AE) P(A \cap E) .
Using the formula for joint probability:
P(AE)=P(A)×P(EA) P(A \cap E) = P(A) \times P(E \mid A) Substitute the known values:
P(AE)=0.4×0.5=0.2 P(A \cap E) = 0.4 \times 0.5 = 0.2

SOLUTION

Calculate the probability of E E , P(E) P(E) .
Using the law of total probability:
P(E)=P(AE)+P(BE)+P(CE) P(E) = P(A \cap E) + P(B \cap E) + P(C \cap E) Calculate each term:
P(BE)=P(B)×P(EB)=0.3×0.3=0.09 P(B \cap E) = P(B) \times P(E \mid B) = 0.3 \times 0.3 = 0.09 P(CE)=P(C)×P(EC)=0.2×0.4=0.08 P(C \cap E) = P(C) \times P(E \mid C) = 0.2 \times 0.4 = 0.08 Add the probabilities:
P(E)=0.2+0.09+0.08=0.37 P(E) = 0.2 + 0.09 + 0.08 = 0.37 The probabilities are:
(a) P(A)=0.4 P(A) = 0.4
(b) P(EA)=0.5 P(E \mid A) = 0.5
(c) P(AE)=0.2 P(A \cap E) = 0.2
(d) P(E)=0.37 P(E) = 0.37

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